Fruitland Coalbed Methane (CBM) Production

I calculated total Fruitland CBM total production from 1988 and 2019 at 21.3 TCF by looking at production data available at the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) and the New Mexico Oil Conservation Division (NMOCD).

Fortunately, after 1994 both organizations tabulate CBM production by county. For the Colorado portion of the San Juan Basin (SJB), I looked at CBM production from La Plata County and Archuleta County. For New Mexico I looked for CBM production from San Juan, Rio Arriba, and Sandoval County. These five counties make up the area of the San Juan Basin. In New Mexico prior to 1994, CBM production data is only available for the whole State and is not divided out by county. Since at the time I do not think there was any CBM production outside of the SJB (Raton CBM production did not really begin until the mid 1990’s), I assumed all CBM production prior to 1994 obtained from the NMOCD as coming from the SJB. The graphs that you see on the home page of this website and here is a result of this tabulation.

Adding up all the gas produced from these five counties, total CBM production is 20.6 TCF. But as you can see from the graph, the COGCC data only goes back to 1995 leaving previous year production unavailable. I extrapolated Colorado production prior to 1995 using the increase in production between 1995 and 1996 as the average increase in production for earlier years. Doing this extrapolation shows production starting in Colorado around 1988 the same as real data shows production taking off in New Mexico. Using this extrapolation method, I came up with an estimated 750 BCF (or 0.75 TCF) of CBM production in Colorado between 1988 and 1994 that is not recorded by the COGCC. Increasing total production in the San Juan Basin from 20.6 TCF to 21.3 TCF from 1988 through 2019.

Some other interesting facts from the data.

SJB Fruitland production peaked in 1998 at 968 BCF per year, slowly declining in the early 2000’s and then a quicker decline in the 2010’s. Production in 2019 was 401 BCF, a 59% decline from the peak 20 years earlier. Average decline since 1998 was around 4% per year with the highest decline coming in at around 10% in 2016. 2019 production was 7% less than the previous year 2018.

I have one more interesting graph. This is a graph that displays my estimate of the dollar amount of Fruitland gas produced per year. I calculated this value by multiplying MCF production by the average yearly price for a MCF of gas as recorded by the U.S Energy Information Agency (EIA). The Blue is the nominal value of Fruitland CBM produced and the orange is the inflation-adjusted value using 2019 dollars. The dollar amount of Fruitland gas increased substantially between 1988 and 2005. In 2005 close to 7 billion dollars of Fruitland gas was produced, over 9 billion in 2019 dollars when adjusted for inflation. Prices stayed high through 2008 then a sharp decrease in the total value of Fruitland Produced Gas with the natural gas price collapse that coincided with the great recession. Prices never recovered to even close to their 2008 levels, and with a further price collapse in 2016, total produced Fruitland gas value decreased to just above 1 billion per year. That also was when Farmington NM made news as America’s fastest shrinking city (https://nmpoliticalreport.com/2016/04/09/new-mexico-home-to-fastest-shrinking-city-in-the-nation/). This might explain why 2016-17 is the beginning of the exodus of large public oil companies packing up and leaving the SJB.

Total nominal amount of Fruitland gas produced I calculate to be 83 billion dollars (111 billion in 2019 inflation adjusted dollars). The cash cow years fell between 2000 and 2008 when north of 5 billion dollars of Fruitland gas was being extracted per year.